Democratic peace or democratization? Talks On the Horizon…Now you see it…Now you don’t...Cyprus…an i

In recent years, especially following the break-up of the former Soviet Union, the world has witnessed an incredible increase in conflicts that pit ethnic groups against one another, often with tragic results...Conflicts in Bosnia, Kosovo, Northern Ireland, Sri Lanka, East Timor, Angola, Somalia, Ethiopia, South Africa, and Israel–Palestine provide a sample of the better-known conflicts centered on struggles between ethnic, religious, and cultural groups…Although politicians and international diplomatic initiatives have made little progress toward reaching a political agreement to end the conflict, over the years there have been many efforts at the citizen level to improve relations…

Intervention in conflict situations is always a risky attempt, even more so when the conflict involves centuries-old hostilities and regional politics…In such cases, there is no ‘silver bullet’ available to reach a magical agreement that will bring peace…Even when diplomats and official government representatives sign papers that bring an end to fighting, draw borders, and set up constitutions, they cannot guarantee the successful implementation of the terms they negotiated…Building sustainable peace is a long process and involves much work among ordinary citizens…While there are many ways to promote citizen involvement in peace building, there is now evidence that participatory planning and design methodologies can contribute to reconciliation in divided societies…

Most Turks have learned over the years to take promises of a European future with a large measure of salt…The military are at pains to point out they are in favor of EU membership and have long pressed for Turkey’s Europeanisation…They worry that liberalising the political system will also lead to a relaxing of restrictions on political Islam, which the military declared Turkey’s greatest threat back in the late 1990’s…It seems Turkey’s troubled relationship with the EU is set to become even more troubling…

Certainly, as full members of the EU, Cyprus is in a better structural position from which to negotiate than Turkey...However, given strong commitment by Ankara to the ‘Annan plan’, there is international sympathy for Turkey…Overall, while it is expected that steps will be made to restart negotiations, a resolution within the forecast period is unlikely….